Can Bitcoin Price Hit $424,000 Sometime in Late 2021?
YouTube bitcoin and crypto worth analyst Benjamin Cowen yesterday launched a brand new video inspecting the BTC 20-week transferring common (20MA) as a macro-level market indicator. What does it say?
Bitcoin Worth: Assist or Resistance
Primarily based on historic knowledge, when the 20MA is appearing as assist for BTC worth, Bitcoin has tended to be in an prolonged bull market. Conversely, the occasions that 20MA has acted as resistance towards the upward motion in Bitcoin worth, have been throughout bear markets.
Within the final market cycle, the Bitcoin worth broke above the 20MA in June 2015. Nonetheless, it didn’t keep above this degree, till 33 weeks later in February 2016, thereafter creating assist.
On this current cycle, we first broke above the 20MA in March 2019. We stayed above this degree without having it as assist for about 26 weeks, then dipped again under, and have lately retaken the 20MA, 43 weeks after first breaking above it.
The place Do We Go From Right here?
Clearly, there isn’t any indication but as as to if the 20MA will now act as assist for an prolonged Bitcoin bull run. However, if we assume that we’ve reached that time within the cycle and mission the identical beneficial properties from this level as we noticed from February 2016, we provide you with a formidable new all-time excessive (ATH).
Positive factors within the final cycle have been round 5,000% and occurred 97 weeks after the 20MA first held as assist. Mimicking this precisely provides a bitcoin worth of $424okay, taking place someday in November 2021.
Nonetheless, Cowen doesn’t imagine that a precise repeat of the final bubble is on its manner.
Lengthening Market Cycles
For starters, Cowen doesn’t see contemporary beneficial properties of 5,000%, reasonably than beneficial properties on the way in which to the subsequent ATH could also be a extra conservative, though nonetheless enormous 1,000-1,500%.
He additionally thinks that the market cycles are lengthening. Particularly that the time between the halving and the height has been getting longer.
After the primary halving, the height got here after round 52 weeks. Nonetheless, after the second halving, this era elevated to 73 weeks. Cowen, due to this fact, means that the height following this 12 months’s halving might take longer nonetheless, with a possible peak not occurring till 2022.
Nonetheless, that may give us a $125okay Bitcoin worth someday in early 2022, which is actually to not be sniffed at… if we are able to keep above the 20MA as assist.
One analyst who believes we are going to maintain assist and stays bullish is veteran dealer, Peter Brandt.
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